If I’m number 1 in Google for “some keyphrase”, how much traffic will I get?
Quadzilla from SEOBlackhat has made a great post on estimated traffic based on search engine: Google - Yahoo - MSN - and everything else; and placement in the SERP. He also followed it up with a free expected click by rank tool.
These calculations are accomplished through the “accidently” released AOL data, Hitwise, and Overture keyword tool. While not 100% accurate this is possibly the closest to accurate data seen outside of the big engines. Obviously the clickthrough rates will vary by the copy relevance, but here are overall average clickthrough numbers extracted from the AOL data:
Ranking Number 1 receives 42.1 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 2 receives 11.9 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 3 receives 8.5 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 4 receives 6.1 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 5 receives 4.9 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 6 receives 4.1 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 7 receives 3.4 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 8 receives 3.0 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 9 receives 2.8 percent of click throughs.
Ranking Number 10 receives 3.0 percent of click throughs.
You can see more tables at SEOBlackhat.
Haven’t had a chance to read the stuff you link to (pushed for time). But from the percentages you posted, I would question the data. 42% for #1 to 11.9 for #2 ?! No way. Well, at least not in my experience. I’ve not noticed that much of a jump between #1 to #3 actually. Perhaps at most 10%. Anyway, there seems to be a big drop if you fall below rank #3.
Comment by Chromate — August 13, 2006 @ 4:45 pm
There is room for very wide variations here.
First of all, this is AOL data, not google. AOL’s SERP is structured in such a way that there are three sponsored search links plus sometimes images or extra content (stock ticker), all in the fold.
I am not an AOL user and never have been, so I don’t know if http://search.aol.com is what all users see. If so, that would be explainable.. which would indeed have an impact on all of this data.
Comment by Andrew — August 13, 2006 @ 7:49 pm