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May 17, 2009

How overvalued is offline advertising?

by Andrew

Almost exactly a year ago (May 18th, 2008) I wrote a blog post declaring Google wanted to be the king of advertising.

That dream received a blow in January when Google announced they were discontinuing their print advertising program. A short time later, in February, Google relegated their radio advertising program to the same fate.

I think these stories say more about the state of print and radio than they do about Google’s failure to expand past online search and display advertising. Rather than investing time and capital in to sinking ships Google decided to cut their losses.

Wonder how bad things could get? Brian McDaniel wrote an interesting blog post comparing the newspaper industries print advertising revenues verse their online advertising revenues. Take a look at his revenue convergence prediction charts. Ouch.

How about radio? Pandora (and probably Last.fm), not satellite radio, will deliver the final death blow.

People don’t like to accept a future where their values may be diminished. The answers were obvious but newspaper execs preferred to bury their heads in the sand. The same could be said of radio.

Newspapers and radio no longer enjoy a monopoly on attention. As their overinflated advertising revenues vanish, those same dollars may very well not resurface online. As an advertiser, I am very happy I can purchase a slice of the same pie for a lot less.

1 Comment

  1. Google abandoned these efforts for 2 reasons:

    1. Tracking is imperfect and haphazard on these kinds of ads. Someone calls the unique 800 number in the ad it can be tracked, someone does a search and clicks on your ad it will count as search advertising without credit for the offline ad, what about type in traffic…

    2. Even when it can be tracked like a special URL or just such a large buy that you would expect to see a lift in total sales – the ROI is not there and publishers dont want it…

    Comment by diorex — May 17, 2009 @ 7:40 pm

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