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October 10, 2008

Global credit super cycle probably collapsed

by Andrew

This past summer’s advice: Its a great time to get a good deal on a car.

Today’s advice: Save your money.

Markets are self-reinforcing on the upside and down. Unfortunately this one has a very real problem. Right now the world’s central bankers are trying to put back together all the pieces of a very complex puzzle. There is a big problem, the puzzle had moving and unsustainable parts. Many of these parts regulators are working towards ensuring “never happen again.” Instead of a happy solution I suspect we are going to end up with a frankenstein.

The credit super cycle requires increasing amounts of credit not only to grow but to sustain itself. Consumers leverage their consumption. Businessmen and analysts make projections based on that consumption and they themselves use leverage to match it. The leverage and its influences permeate everywhere and are self reinforcing.

If you think that some government official can fix it, I suggest you study more.

1 Comment »

  1. It makes me mad because over the years I have paid my credit cards maybe 2 or 3 times what I owe them, and still they are going to say I am not a good credit user, WTF! they should freaking drop my balance and go on with their life.

    Comment by Me — November 2, 2008 @ 11:46 am

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